Saturday, July 21, 2012

Interest Rate Forecast for 5-Year Treasury Notes

In this post, we forecast the yields for five-year treasury notes/bonds over the next five years using the same technique we used in an earlier post. In the earlier post, Where Are Interest Rates Headed?, we used the current yield curve to derive the yield curve as it is expected to be one, two and five years in the future. In effect, this post takes the results from that post and looks at them through a different lens.

Market Forecast of Five-Year Interest Rates for Next 5 Years

Interest rate forecast for 5-year U.S. Treasury Notes/ Bonds
Market Forecast of Five-Year Interest Rates

In the graph above (click to expand) the solid blue line represents five-year U.S. Treasury Notes. Year zero shows the "current" yield of 0.68% (To be consistent with the graph in the previous post, "current" is as of June 15, 2012). The remaining points show the expected yield on five-year treasuries from one to five years in the future. The expected yields were derived from

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

My Dropcam HD Security Camera: A Quickie Review

To supplement my traditional alarm system I now have live, internet-accessible video and audio of my home via my hi-def Dropcam video camera.  Here's a quick review based upon about a week's usage.

Sample Dropcam HD (high definition) Video

internet-accessible security camera, room / baby / pet / sitter monitor
Sample Dropcam HD Video

What's a Dropcam HD Camera??

With my Dropcam video camera, even though I'm currently in New York City, anytime day or night I can pull out my Droid and get a live "hi-def" view of what's happening at my home in Houston (similar to the sample shot above). Not only that, but if there is movement or sound

Sunday, July 1, 2012

June 2012 Stock Market Update

Stock market (DJIA) monthly performance / closing prices for last 12 months
Dow Index Monthly Closes Through June, 2012

A Disappointing Second Quarter

June was actually a pretty good month.  On the final day of trading, the Dow was up 2.2%, rallying on good news from Europe.  However, it marked the end of a disappointing second quarter.  The market fell 2.5% during the quarter, primarily because of concerns about a) Europe, b) China, and c) the U.S. -- three of the most important drivers of the global economy.

An emerging domestic concern lately is the so-called "fiscal cliff" looming on