tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post1951386130279033903..comments2024-03-26T02:08:50.592-05:00Comments on Observations: Best & Worst 10-Year Returns in Stock Market History (thru 2012)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-56304565789249179552013-01-20T14:26:42.189-06:002013-01-20T14:26:42.189-06:00Chuck,
Thanks for your comments.
I agree rolli...Chuck,<br /><br />Thanks for your comments. <br /><br />I agree rolling real returns would be useful. Not sure I agree that they're <i>better</i>; I think it's instructive to look at it both ways. This post is an early post -- before I had long-term inflation data. Since then I have added an inflation-adjusted stock market post. I hope to add more this year; rolling 10-year returns is high on that list.<br /><br />I also agree the S&P is theoretically better/sounder. However, I question whether the switch would lead to significantly different conclusions since my investigations are at such a high level. Still, I haven't ruled it out -- it's just not a priority at this point. I'll continue to revisit.<br /><br />Thanks again for stopping by.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-42333871818636047532013-01-20T10:47:49.663-06:002013-01-20T10:47:49.663-06:00This is great work--thanks for doing it. However,...This is great work--thanks for doing it. However, your 10 year forward returns presentation would be much more impactful were it stated real rather than nominal terms. You correctly pointed out that inflation would have an impact. I wasn't able to get into the internals of your model, but it seems to me that: 1) inflation per year is known for the periods modeled, and 2) nominal returns (which you've shown) could be fairly easily converted to real terms. Doing so would present an more reasonable picture of how stock market returns would affect an individual.<br /><br />For instance, my guess is that were you to use real rather than nominal returns, the decade beginning in 1928 wouldn't make the list of top ten worse decades. The early years of the 1930's were years of significant deflation, not inflation.<br /><br />I would also suggest using the S&P rather than the Dow for sever reason--to begin with the DOW is improperly weighted and therefor isn't a particularly good surrogate for the stock market, and the DOW is also a poor market representative because it doesn't capture the economic impact of the most dynamic portion of the market place, that being small cap companies. The S&P has a better construct from and index prospective and also provides a considerably better model of the economy. I also realize that using the S&P would increase your work load unless you used another source for the S&P data. Robert Shiller has already done this work and it can be found at the following link: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm<br /><br />Thanks again for what you've done. It's great readingChuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18352280894294559917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-90743884276239164062011-04-23T14:06:35.952-05:002011-04-23T14:06:35.952-05:00The Dow return for the 10 years ending 2010 was 3....The Dow return for the 10 years ending 2010 was 3.1% <br /><br />Note: a link to find the most recent 10-year return (along with other time periods) is always in the opening paragraph of this post.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-10226290312089638152011-04-21T08:13:26.290-05:002011-04-21T08:13:26.290-05:00What is the average 10 yr return for year ending i...What is the average 10 yr return for year ending in 2010?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-17825174977293456762010-04-16T11:21:46.072-05:002010-04-16T11:21:46.072-05:00From the beginning of 1900 through the end of 2009...From the beginning of 1900 through the end of 2009, the average is still 10%. (A single year has almost no impact on the average.)Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-70781369140948932602010-04-15T16:18:25.025-05:002010-04-15T16:18:25.025-05:00Do you have the average 10 year return as of 2010?...Do you have the average 10 year return as of 2010?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com