tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post5461949346945764515..comments2024-03-26T02:08:50.592-05:00Comments on Observations: 100 Years of Stock Market History (log graph)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-88868065000295498832012-12-07T02:41:27.781-06:002012-12-07T02:41:27.781-06:00In fact, property prices increase less than 3% as ...In fact, property prices increase less than 3% as inflation is not included. Apparently property will struggle to beat inflation for the near future. Does the stock market fair the same?schnarf.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00263108155343684324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-27848056356218324802012-12-07T02:28:43.075-06:002012-12-07T02:28:43.075-06:00If longterm stocks with dividends reinvested retur...If longterm stocks with dividends reinvested return 10% inflation adjusted- does that mean 10% every year? Eg, 10,000 becomes ~175,000 with no loss in value of money in 30years? If so, doesn't that make stocks much better than property which returns 3% average?schnarf.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00263108155343684324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-8924705805412729052012-12-07T02:23:44.980-06:002012-12-07T02:23:44.980-06:00I was looking at a chart (not 100years, it was out...I was looking at a chart (not 100years, it was outlining that longterm, common stocks return 10% adjusted with inflation where dividends are reinvested)- what does this return mean? Is that 10% average every year? In other words, 30 years turns £10,000 to £174,494? If so, surely that means common stock are much better than property, which only averages 3% after inflation?schnarf.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00263108155343684324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-74832422446017808602011-10-29T09:54:36.130-05:002011-10-29T09:54:36.130-05:00I don't know of any general source for such in...I don't know of any general source for such info. Maybe the most likely source for data that old and that detailed is the companies themselves. Sears and G.E. are two companies that were around back then; you might try them.<br /><br />Good luck.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-18962824614443343202011-10-29T07:35:19.621-05:002011-10-29T07:35:19.621-05:00I have to make a line graph charting an individual...I have to make a line graph charting an individual stock in the month of november but in a year from the late 1800's to 1910. can you offer any resources that would provide the daily/weekly stock prices? thanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-18926108912492951062011-04-22T08:29:23.289-05:002011-04-22T08:29:23.289-05:00emb,
FYI, there are now a couple of posts that add...emb,<br />FYI, there are now a couple of posts that address your question about 1929 prices in today's dollars:<br /><a href="http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2011/03/stock-market-100-year-inflation-history.html" rel="nofollow">100 Years of Inflation-Adjusted Stock Market History</a> is like this post, but in constant 2010 dollars.<br /><a href="http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2011/04/quickie-inflation-calculator.html" rel="nofollow">The Observations Inflation Calculator/Spreadsheet</a> will convert dollars in any year to equivalent dollars in any other year.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-33018360752541378062011-01-19T10:40:39.897-06:002011-01-19T10:40:39.897-06:00emb, there's your answer -- at least, an appro...emb, there's your answer -- at least, an approximation. Thanx anon.<br /><br />The bigger issue is still inflation-adjusting the whole chart. Definitely plan to do that this year.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-85399581031638716752011-01-18T22:33:00.528-06:002011-01-18T22:33:00.528-06:00At a 3% inflation rate the $75,000 in 1929 would n...At a 3% inflation rate the $75,000 in 1929 would now be worth $6361.67 at the end of 2010.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-45653707547418295722011-01-18T22:28:13.361-06:002011-01-18T22:28:13.361-06:00At 3% inflation per year the 1929 dollar is worth ...At 3% inflation per year the 1929 dollar is worth 0.84821 ¢.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-81830997135095046332010-11-06T11:29:35.487-05:002010-11-06T11:29:35.487-05:00emb,
Excellent question. Unfortunately, I don...emb,<br /><br />Excellent question. Unfortunately, I don't know the answer -- yet. Since we're looking at the stock market since 1900, it would be helpful to see those numbers adjusted for inflation. I plan to add inflation data later this year or early next year.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-12776142042540685602010-11-06T08:34:16.402-05:002010-11-06T08:34:16.402-05:00I'm curious....what is the value of 1929's...I'm curious....what is the value of 1929's $75,000 in todays dollars? .....embUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12021850742167484264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-11347084496586941222010-09-22T18:55:20.660-05:002010-09-22T18:55:20.660-05:00While investing in the stock market does involve r...While investing in the stock market does involve risk, in my opinion calling it "gambling" goes too far.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-47844321083594759012010-09-22T02:53:40.584-05:002010-09-22T02:53:40.584-05:00The stock market is gambling, to be sure. But putt...The stock market is gambling, to be sure. But putting all your money into cash equivalents is also risky- at best, if you are in TIPS, your money will only keep pace with inflation.dow jones historyhttp://www.beginner-investing-made-easy.com/dow-jones-history.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-86344810105092092092010-02-19T18:24:06.221-06:002010-02-19T18:24:06.221-06:00rj,
See the "Data and Computations" sect...rj,<br />See the "Data and Computations" section of the post.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-47202716598115196982010-02-19T17:58:40.721-06:002010-02-19T17:58:40.721-06:00Have you ever posted the figures for the years? I...Have you ever posted the figures for the years? I need the year end number for the years 1901 - 2009.rj.frost@mchsi.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-41335770568178118182009-12-20T12:13:07.488-06:002009-12-20T12:13:07.488-06:00I'm not sure that I understand your question, ...I'm not sure that I understand your question, but I'll try to answer anyway.<br /><br />The value of looking at 100-year charts is that one additional year doesn't change very much. That's the advantage of looking at history from this broad perspective. When I update the 100-year chart at the end of the year, to me it won't look significantly different from the way it looked a year ago. As a result, my interpretation is likely to be the same -- I'll still see stock market history as consisting of periods of excitement followed by "long (relatively) flat periods" where the underlying businesses have to catch up to a previously euphoric stock market. So, I would not be surprised if years from now a like-minded soul doing a similar analysis reached a similar conclusion. In that sense, the situation is unchanged.<br /><br />But, understand that what looks "flat" in hindsight doesn't necessarily feel that way when you're in the midst of it. For example, 1973-74 were horrible years for the stock market; 1975-76 were very nice. In hindsight, taking the big view, all those years were part of a long flat period. So, even in these flat periods there are opportunities to make, or lose, a lot of money over the short term. From that point of view, it's clear that the situation has changed in that investing a year ago would have produced better results than investing now. I'm guessing you already knew that.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-77127262405711638552009-12-17T05:20:32.574-06:002009-12-17T05:20:32.574-06:00Much appreciate your analysis here. Its now over a...Much appreciate your analysis here. Its now over a year later, how do you think the situation has changed?Jonhttp://www.local-attorneys.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-24673296041529354932009-10-28T09:44:11.277-05:002009-10-28T09:44:11.277-05:00I agree with your analysis up to the point were we...I agree with your analysis up to the point were we are now. However, the problem is that we are shipping jobs overseas at an alarming rate. What used to be American companies are now multinational, and those companies have shifted operations to China and elsewhere. Over the long term as this trend expands, the United States will be faced with deflation as values decline and wages fall. At the same time, the American government has removed most of the safeguards put into place after the Great Depression, and thus placed us in a position for banks and brokerage houses to fail. Unless the regulations making banks, banks and limiting their size and function, and brokerage houses are not permitted to be banks, our financial system will not be sound.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-26415054036212479572009-10-22T04:44:24.913-05:002009-10-22T04:44:24.913-05:00The central bank recklessly engineered an enormous...The central bank recklessly engineered an enormous bubble to form starting in the 1980's, so big that it dwarfs the 1920's bubble. Anybody who thinks we're getting out of this ok<br />needs to re examine the facts. All of the current attempts such to re inflate this bubble, such as taxpayer subsidized auto, home and appliance sales will only hasten the day when the former united states is at the mercy of the world.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-84046758362014950112008-11-29T17:01:00.000-06:002008-11-29T17:01:00.000-06:00Anon,Done (see Related Reading). Sorry it took so ...Anon,<BR/>Done (see Related Reading). Sorry it took so long.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-19720274719869951282008-11-28T00:31:00.000-06:002008-11-28T00:31:00.000-06:00This comment has been removed by the author.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-35655661290640535022008-11-15T18:40:00.000-06:002008-11-15T18:40:00.000-06:00Anon,The data is from a spreadsheet I created (man...Anon,<BR/>The data is from a spreadsheet I created (manually)some time in the 1990s. I'm virtually certain that the original data (through 1989)came from Barron's Finance & Investment Handbook (Third Edition). Data since then is from some combination of Barron's, Morningstar and the local paper from where ever I was living at the time.<BR/>I'm guessing that doesn't help you very much.... So, I'll see if I can figure out how to post a spreadsheet. It may take a while.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-28740701192269211642008-11-15T08:41:00.000-06:002008-11-15T08:41:00.000-06:00Could you post where got the raw data from? I'd li...Could you post where got the raw data from? I'd like to do some similar analysis myself.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com