tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post6865855655277154950..comments2024-03-26T02:08:50.592-05:00Comments on Observations: The Best & Worst 5 (and 50) Year Returns in Stock Market HistoryUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-9903788509675101462012-07-06T13:32:42.313-05:002012-07-06T13:32:42.313-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-21448654389314151592012-07-06T13:30:27.139-05:002012-07-06T13:30:27.139-05:00Unfortunately, I don't own that book, so I can...Unfortunately, I don't own that book, so I can't see the full context. I think it's safe to assume that what Siegel is saying is consistent with my results. (However, note that his results will be slightly different since they are based upon the S&P, whereas mine are Dow based,) <br /><br />Siegel's 7% real return is similar to the long-term returns of ~9-10% before inflation that I mention in the intro paragraph in "Average Stock Market Results Since 19xx" ( http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2009/03/average-annual-stock-market-return.html ) That's the AVERAGE over very long periods of time. <br /> <br />However, even for periods as long as 50 years, specific periods such as 1928-1978 can be noticeably higher or lower than that average. The Range of Market Returns for 1,2, ... 100 years ( http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2009/05/stock-market-returns-1-100-years.html ) shows what happens as you look at longer and longer periods. If he said returns were 6.5 - 7% for EVERY period, he would have to have been looking at periods of at least 100 years. <br /><br />Does that help?Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03349009181054767705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7073066728112402191.post-2469299095574002042012-07-05T11:56:04.430-05:002012-07-05T11:56:04.430-05:00I'm in the middle of reading Jeremy Sigel'...I'm in the middle of reading Jeremy Sigel's [i]The Future for Investors[/i]. I'm on Chapter 12, where he's discussing "Siegel's Constant," which states that the real (i.e., after inflation) long-term returns on equities was between 6.5% and 7% for every period between 1801-2001.<br /><br />Unless I'm missing something, this directly contradicts (and is directly contradicted by) your findings in this post, particularly where you found a mere ~3.8% real return on equities (the DJIA) from 1928-1958.<br /><br />What's going on here?Andrewnoreply@blogger.com