Friday, February 19, 2010

Houston Rockets at All-Star Break

The all-star break is a good time to review the Rockets' statistics. Early in the season would have been too early as the team was still in transition -- trying to redefine itself in the absence of both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. When I look at basketball stats, I prefer to analyze them on a per-minute, or per-40-minutes, basis. The three traditional stats -- points, rebounds and assists -- are presented on that basis in the table below for the Rockets' key, "rotation," players. (click to enlarge the table)

Houston Rockets 2009-2010 Production per 40 Minutes Played

Houston Rockets Per Minute Statistics

Houston Rockets Per Minute Statistics

Carl Landry Tops in Production
Interestingly, the number one and two scorers,

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Earnings & Dividends Determine Long-Term Stock Market Returns

In the long term, the contribution of earnings growth and dividends to total return dominates the contribution made by changes in p/e ratio.  We saw in an earlier post that changes in the price/earnings (p/e) ratio had a disproportionate impact on yearly stock market returns. In this post, we will see that over time earnings growth and dividends win out.

The Contribution of Earnings Growth and Dividends to 50-Year Stock Market (Dow) Total Returns

Contribution to 50-Year Stock Market Returns

The stacked bar chart above (click to expand) shows the market's annualized total return for 50-year periods beginning in 1920; the segments of the bar show

Monday, February 1, 2010

How the Stock Market Projection Model Works

Is it possible to forecast the stock market return for the next 10 years? If so, how do you do it? In Projecting Stock Market Returns we saw the results of a simple forecasting model that seemed to produce promising results. Below is the resulting graph introduced and discussed in that post (click to expand). In this post, I'll describe how the model estimates future returns.

Projecting 10-Year Stock Market (Dow) Returns

Stock market (Dow Index) 10-year forecast returns vs actual performance

Stock Market (DJIA) Forecast Methodology

We have consistently seen evidence that