Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Analyzing Treasury Bond Interest Rate History since 1900

The chart below of bond interest rate history has negative implications not just for some bonds, but potentially for stocks & housing as well. This post complements 100 Years of Treasury Note Interest Rate History, the previous post which graphed the month-by-month rates.

Together, the two posts make it clear that we are currently experiencing historically low yields. That suggests a future of rising interest rates. Rising rates have negative implications not only for many bond investors, but potentially for the stock market and housing market as well.

Treasury Bond Interest Rate History: Yearly Frequency Histogram

frequency histogram of 10-year Treasury Note interest rates (yields) for 100 years

The above histogram/frequency distribution of treasury yields is based on the same data as the chart in the previous post (click on image to expand). From 1953 onward, the source data is

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

100 Years of Treasury Bond Interest Rate History

Investors expecting bond funds to perform as well in the next 10 years as they have in the last 10 will be disappointed. Bonds can play an important role in investor portfolios, reducing volatility and increasing the predictability of returns. However, the stellar performance of bond funds -- especially longer-term funds -- as yields have declined over the last 30 years will not be repeated anytime soon. Not only that, there is even the risk of negative returns.

U.S Treasury Bond Interest Rate History Since 1900

100-year history of 10-year Treasury Note interest rates (yields) 1900 - 2013
U.S. Treasury Bond Interest Rate History

The graph above (click on image to expand) shows U.S. interest rates beginning in 1900. From 1953 onward, the rates are

Monday, November 1, 2010

November 2010 Stock Market Update

October, Year-To-Date & Recovery-To-Date Review
Note: click here for November data

The market is on a tear. The DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) closed the month of October at 11,118.49. Partially in anticipation of additional quantitative easing from the Fed, the market continued the advance from its recent low in August. Here's a summary of the extent of the advances:

  • From Prior Month Close of 10788: Up 330 (3.1%)
  • From 2009 Close of 10428: Up 690 points (6.6%)
  • From Recent Low of 9986 on August 26: Up 1133 points (11.3%)
  • From 52-Week Low of 9686 on