Observations: Investing: Subject Index

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INVESTING-GENERAL, BONDS & INFLATION

Inflation

The Declining Value of a Dollar: 100 Year History: Shows the dramatic decrease in purchasing power over time.
Inflation Calculator: Calculates inflation rate between any two years. Converts current dollars to/from prior years.
What Would $10,000 in 19xx be Equivalent to Today? graph to convert dollar amounts from any prior year to their approximate equivalent today.
How Much Will $100 be Worth in 10-20 Years? converts today's dollars to equivalent in future years.
100 Years of Inflation History: graph, + summary of impact of inflation on bonds, stocks, housing....
Inflation Calculator/Spreadsheet: calculates inflation rate and change in purchasing power between any two years -- e.g., between 1970 & 1980.

Investing-General

The Importance of Starting to Invest When You're Young: the magic of compounding.
The Easiest Way to Increase Investment Returns reduce your expenses!
Why Mutual Fund Owners Earn Lower Returns Than the Funds They Own (!): Investors' returns are not just lower than market returns, but lower even than the returns of the funds they own!
Why Investing in the Stock Market for Less Than 5 Years is Risky: a look at historical results of investing for one and five years. Why the market is not a good place for funds that you will need soon.
The Impact of Large Investment Losses: What % gain is required to recover from large losses?
Real World Expenses Reduce Theoretical/Published Market Returns: more on the surprising impact of expenses on investment returns.
About P/E, Normalized Earnings and Normalized P/E Ratios: how I normalize earnings & p/e ratios.
About Nominal & Real Rates of Return: the difference is inflation.
About Stock Market Log Graphs Why some of the graphs use log scale for vertical axis.
Sample Personal Strategic Plan: Financial planning as part of overall life planning.
My Favorite Personal Finance Books

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Bonds/CDs

100 Years of Treasury Bond Interest Rate History: line graph
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Return History: Inflation-adjusted returns since 1900
What Will a $10,000 CD/Bond be Worth in 10 Years?: An easy way to estimate the value of your fixed income investment in 10 years.
What Will My Bond/CD be Worth in 5 Years?: as above, but for 5 years.
Where Are Interest Rates Headed? My methodology and spreadsheet for forecasting interest rates.
Interest Rate Forecast for 5-Year Treasury Notes -- using the above methodology
Yield to Maturity & Interest Rate Risk why bond prices decline when interest rates rise.
The Importance of Bond Duration: duration is a way to measure interest rate risk.
Treasury Bond Interest Rate History Since 1900: likelihood of rates above/below various levels (frequency distribution/histogram).
The impact of inflation rate on bonds: overview of the impact of inflation -- including on bonds.
Bond Basics: the relationship between interest, principal, interest rate & time.
Fundamentals of Investment Valuation: introduction to present value concept

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STOCK MARKET: HISTORY/ANALYSIS

Bull Markets, Bear Markets and Crashes

The Stock Market Crash of 1929-1932 (Great Depression) Revisited -- includes log graph of closing prices, and comparison to the bear market that started in 2007.
The 25 Best & Worst Years in Stock Market History
The Extraordinary Impact of Price/Earnings Ratios -- includes analysis of how much of the 1929 crash was "caused" by changes in p/e ratio vs change in earnings/dividends.
The Impact of Large Stock Market Losses: What % gain is required to recover from a crash?
Major Bull and Bear Markets Since 1900: analysis of secular bull and bear markets. P/E ratios characteristic of secular tops & bottoms.
Three Scenarios for the Economy (and the Stock Market): Includes links to detailed analysis of some previous major bear markets such as Japan's.
Analyzing & Understanding 100 Years of Stock Market History -- includes analysis of the 1994-1999 bull market.
My Favorite Personal Finance Books
Stock Market Analysis Spreadsheet/Model downloadable Excel spreadsheet

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Closing Price History

Closing prices for Year-end 2009, Year-end 2010, Year-end 2011,
June 2012, September, Year-end 2012, January 2013, February, March,
(For other months, see blog archives in sidebar)

100 Year Stock Market History Chart: log graph of year-end closing prices since around 1900. Includes link to simple spreadsheet of closing prices.
100 Years of Inflation-Adjusted Stock Market History: same as above, adjusted for inflation.
Dow Price to Earnings Ratios since 1929 - Yearly Graph: p/e superimposed over closing prices graph.
Dow at 25-Year Moving Average (log graph): the significance of the 25-year moving average.
About Stock Market Log Graphs: why I use a (semi-)log plot for long-term graphs.
100 Years of Inflation History: overview of the impact of inflation on major investment classes.
Dow Compound Growth Calculator/Spreadsheet: Displays closing year-end prices.

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Earnings, Dividends & Their Growth Rates

Stock Market Earnings Growth History and a Worst-Case Scenario: derives estimate of long-term earnings growth rate.
Dow Price to Earnings Ratios since 1929 - Yearly Graph: p/e superimposed over earnings and dividend growth.
Earnings & Dividends Contribution to Total Returns: the impact of earnings growth and dividends on 50-year returns.
Analyzing & Understanding 100 Years of Stock Market History: introduces model that calculates the impact of earnings growth and dividends on returns.
Worst-Case Scenarios Based on 100 Years of Dow Price/Earnings History: includes extrapolation of some historic worst-case earnings.
Normalized Earnings and Returns
About P/E, Normalized Earnings and Normalized P/E Ratios: how I normalize earnings.
Stock Market Analysis Model/Spreadsheet downloadable Excel spreadsheet
100 Years of Inflation History: overview of the impact of inflation.

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Valuation: Price/Earnings, Price/Dividend Ratio, & Dividend Yield History
(Note: also see The Impact of Valuation on Returns)

Dow Price/Earnings Ratio History since 1929 - Yearly Graph
Dow Dividend Yield and Price/Dividend Ratio History - Yearly Chart
Major Bull and Bear Markets since 1900: P/E ratios at major tops and bottoms.
Worst-Case Scenarios Based on 100 Years of Dow Price/Earnings History: some historic worst-case p/e ratios.
The Crisis: A Contributing Factor: includes lack of valuation discipline as a contributing factor.
About P/E, Normalized Earnings and Normalized P/E Ratios: how I normalize p/e ratios.
My Favorite Personal Finance Books
Stock Market Analysis Model/Spreadsheet downloadable Excel spreadsheet
(Note: also see The Impact of Valuation on Rates of Return below.)

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Returns, Rate of Return
(Note: also see The Impact of Valuation on Returns)

Most recent month & YTD Returns for 2009, Year-end 2010, Year-end 2011,
June 2012, September, Year-end 2012, January 2013, February, March,
(For other months, see blog archives in sidebar)

Average Stock Market Return for the last n years: rates of return for some key periods of interest -- e.g., the last 5, 10, 20 years, through most recent year-end. (Results generally don't change much mid-year)
Stock Market Returns by Year since 1929 (bar graph)
The 25 Best & Worst Yearly Stock Market Returns in History: 1-year returns.
Dow Compound Growth Calculator: Spreadsheet calculates rate of return between "any" 2 years. +What would $1 invested in 19xx be worth now?
If You Had Invested $1 in the Stock Market in 19xx (graph version): Graphic version of the above for those without spreadsheets.
Range of Stock Market (Percentage) Returns for 1-100 Year Holding Periods Best & worst annualized percentage returns for 1, 2, 3, ... 100-year periods.

Rolling Returns: Graphs of all 5-Year, 10-Year, 20-Year, 35-Year and 50-Year returns -- not just the best & worst.
Distribution of returns between best & worst: for 10-Year Returns and 20-Year Returns e.g., what are chances of 10-year returns below 6%?
Histograms: Yearly Market Returns Histogram & 10-Year Returns Histogram

Range of Stock Market Returns in Dollars for 10-100 Years, 1-10 Years. A very different perspective from annual percentage returns, with some surprising results.

Distribution of Dollar returns between best & worst: for 5-Year Returns, 10-Year Returns, and 20-Year Returns For example, you invest $10,000 today; what are chances you will have at least $50,000 in 20 years?

Analyzing & Understanding 100 Years of Stock Market History: What drives/determines returns?
Major Bull and Bear Markets since 1900: Rates of return from secular tops and bottoms.
Normalized Earnings and Returns
About Nominal & Real Rates of Return: the difference is inflation.
My Favorite Personal Finance Books
Stock Market Analysis Model/Spreadsheet downloadable Excel spreadsheet

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The Impact of Valuation (e.g., p/e) on Rates of Return

Initial P/E Ratio Compared to Subsequent Returns:

Dow Price/Earnings Ratio Impact on Future Returns - A Summary: Returns of purchases made when p/e is high compared to returns of low p/e purchases. Impact in $$$.
Stock Market Rolling Returns vs Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio Graphs: Rolling returns plotted against initial p/e ratio.
Initial P/E Ratio vs. 20-Year Market Returns: scatter diagram with trend line demonstrating relationship between initial P/E and subsequent returns.
Initial P/E Ratio vs. 10-Year Market Returns: similar to above. Borrowing from the Future: why periods of great performance tend to be followed by poor performance.
Initial P/E Ratio vs. 5-Year Market Returns
Initial P/E Ratio vs. 1-Year Market Returns

Contribution of Changes in Valuation to Returns (vs. contribution of dividends, earnings growth)

The Extraordinary Impact of Price to Earnings Ratios on annual returns -- compared to the impact of earnings growth & dividends.
Components of 10-Year Returns: comparison of impact of earnings growth, dividends and p/e ratio on 10-year returns.
Earnings & Dividends Determine Long-Term Returns: comparison of impact of earnings growth and dividends vs the impact of p/e on 50-year returns.
Analyzing & Understanding 100 Years of Stock Market History: introduces the model that decomposes the returns.

Dow Price/Earnings Ratio History since 1929 - Yearly Graph: p/e ratio superimposed over closing price history.
Major Bull and Bear Markets since 1900: P/E ratios at major tops and bottoms, & subsequent returns.
My Favorite Personal Finance Books
Stock Market Analysis Model/Spreadsheet downloadable Excel spreadsheet

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Retirement Planning Perspective on Returns

The impact of inflation rate on retirement planning: understanding the impact of inflation is critical to retirement planning.
The Declining Value of a Dollar: 100 Year History: Inflation's impact on purchasing power.
Distribution of Historical Returns for N Years

Don't Plan Retirement Assuming Average Returns Looks at the distribution/variability of 20-year returns between the minimum and maximum. Includes table showing, e.g., chance of returns being less than 5%/year, 6%/year, etc.
How Much Will a $100,000 Stock Market Investment be Worth in 20 Years?: Similar to above, but focusing on the variability of 20-year returns in dollars. Answers questions like "How Much Will a $100,000 Investment be Worth in 20 years?"
The Variability of 10-Year Stock Market Returns, in Dollars: Similar to the above, but for 10 years. Answers question such as "What are chances $100,000 will grow to $400,000 in 10 years.
Why Investing in the Stock Market for Less Than 5 Years is Risky: Similar to the above two, but for 1 & 5 years.
Retirement Planning: Distribution of 10-Year Returns: similar to above. Includes table showing, e.g., chance of returns less than n%/year for 10 years.
Range of Stock Market Returns in Dollars for 10-100 Years, 1-10 Years. An important and overlooked perspective -- especially in retirement planning.

Comparing Housing and Stock Market Growth
Housing vs Stock Market Growth Revisited
My Favorite Personal Finance Books

Note: The Retirement Planning label in the sidebar includes additional posts related to retirement planning.
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FORECASTS

Stock Market Projection Model

10-Year Stock Market Projection -- graph as of 1/1/2012. Most recent update: March 2013 Stock Market Performance (prose only).
Projecting Stock Market Returns: overview of methodology for estimating future 10-year returns. Backtest graph (prior year "projections" compared to actual results).
How the Stock Market Projection Model Works: critical assumptions, high-level flow, links to related posts.

Interest Rate & Inflation Forecasts

Where Are Interest Rates Headed? My methodology and spreadsheet for forecasting interest rates.
Interest Rate Forecast for 5-Year Treasury Notes -- using the above methodology
How Much Will $100 be Worth 10-20 Years From Now?

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Potential Long-Term Support Levels

Dow 25-Year Moving Average History(log graph)
2010 Year-end Update Includes update of 25-year moving average.

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Worst-Case Scenarios

The 1929-1932 (Great Depression) Stock Market Crash Revisited -- includes log graph of closing prices, and projection of 1929 crash to current environment.
Stock Market Earnings Growth History and a Worst-Case Scenario: projects 1932 & 1974 bear market lows to present.
Worst-Case Scenarios Based on 100 Years of Dow Price/Earnings History: applies worst-ever normalized p/e ratios to recent earnings.
Three Scenarios for the Economy (and the Stock Market): Outline of possible scenarios, including links to assessments by Nouriel Roubini, Bill Gross, Robert Shiller, Jeremy Grantham, and others.

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OTHER/MISCELLANEOUS

Do All Black Lives Matter?

"Too Big To Fail" Assures Bignesss - And Failure
The Fed Proposes Insurance for Money Market Funds
Wall Street Bailout, or Main Street Rescue?
The Crisis: A Contributing Factor: "We have met the enemy and he is us."

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ADDITIONAL SITE NAVIGATION AIDS

Most popular posts: See the sidebar on the left for Top 10 All-Time (with thumbnail graphics & snippets), & lists of recently popular posts by category/subject area.
Subject Indexes: for the major categories/subject areas (e.g., "stock market"). Located in the header at the top of each page. Include the most popular posts in each category.
Snapshots of graphics from all posts, most recent first, with short description. Preview the graphic then click through to the post.
Label Cloud: See the sidebar for a list of labels used on this site.
Stock Market Spreadsheet and Data Navigation Guide: partial listing

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