Friday, January 7, 2011

Stock Market Returns through 2009

In case you haven't noticed, this blog takes a strategic, very-long-term view of just about everything. Most of the analysis and graphs deal with a century of data. In my view, another year or two of data is, in most cases, unnecessary. Generally, the message is the same whether you look at results through 2008, e.g., or through 2010. In those few cases where I think it most important, I will update posts/graphs annually; others will be updated much less frequently.

Since I only update a few key graphs annually, I thought it might prove useful to preserve last year's version of the "Market Returns Since 19xx" post for those readers who feel compelled to put the last dot on every chart. If the information below is not sufficient, the supporting data for all stock market related charts is available in my stock market analysis models on Google Docs.

Results Through 2009

The average yearly total return (i.e., including dividends) for the stock market for periods of 25 years or longer has been around 9-10%. Following are the results for some key periods ending at year-end 2009:
  • The average total yearly return of the Dow Index from 1900 (end-of-year 1899) through 2009 was approximately 9.4%  -- 4.7% price appreciation, plus approx 4.7% in dividends.
  • The return from 1929 (End-of-year 1928 -- i.e., before the crash) was 8.8% (4.5%, plus 4.3%)
  • From end-of-year 1932 (i.e., after the crash) - 2009: 11.1% (6.9%, plus 4.2%)
  • For the last twenty-five calendar years, the annual return was 11.9% (9.0%, plus 2.9%)
  • For the last 20 years, 9.4% (6.9%, plus 2.5%)
  • For the last 10 years, 1.3% (-1.0%, plus 2.3%)
  • For the last 5 years, 1.9% (-0.7%, plus 2.6%)
  • For 2009 the stock market (Dow/DJIA) total return was 22.0% (18.8% plus 3.2%)
  • 2009 Year-end Dividend Yield was 2.7%
  • For comparable results for similar periods ending the following year, see
    Average Stock Market Returns: 19xx thru 2010.

For lists of other popular posts, and a complete index of all stock market posts by subject area, see the sidebar on the left.

In all cases above, the returns are from year-end to year-end. In addition, by "stock market" I mean the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average). The results would be essentially the same for the S&P 500.  Note: dividends prior to 1929 have been estimated based upon another stock market index.

Copyright © 2010.   Last modified: 1/4/2013

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